Quantum threat tracker Updated 9 Nov 2026, 05:21 UTC

Every paper we track

Each figure is quoted from the paper and checked against its text. Lower qubit counts mean an easier attack.

256-bit elliptic curve (6)

secp256k1, P-256, Curve25519, Ed25519

DatePaperPhysical qubitsLogical qubitsRun time
Oct 2026Shor's algorithm compiled on cat qubits: 22 593 qubits for RSA-2048 in 3.14 daysarXiv 2610.3783929,588n/a1.03 hours
Sep 2026Computing 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithms in 26 days on a fault-tolerant trapped-ion quantum computer with 20,000 qubitsarXiv 2609.0562519,397down 85%n/a25.7 days
Jul 2026Quantum Algorithm for Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms with Space-Efficient Point AdditionarXiv 2607.13816n/a835down 30%n/a
Mar 2026Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies against Quantum Vulnerabilities: Resource Estimates and MitigationsarXiv 2603.28846n/a1,200down 48%9 minutes
Feb 2023Performance Analysis of a Repetition Cat Code Architecture: Computing 256-bit Elliptic Curve Logarithm in 9 Hours with 126133 Cat QubitsarXiv 2302.06639126,133n/a9 hours
Jun 2017Quantum resource estimates for computing elliptic curve discrete logarithmsarXiv 1706.06752n/a2,330n/a

RSA-2048 (4)

TLS certificates, code signing, older PGP keys

DatePaperPhysical qubitsLogical qubitsRun time
Oct 2026Shor's algorithm compiled on cat qubits: 22 593 qubits for RSA-2048 in 3.14 daysarXiv 2610.3783922,593down 94%n/a3.1 days
Apr 2026Heterogeneous architectures enable a 138x reduction in physical qubit requirements for fault-tolerant quantum computing under detailed acco…arXiv 2604.06319381,000down 62%n/a9.2 days
May 2025How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubitsarXiv 2505.159171 milliondown 95%n/a7 days
May 2019How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubitsarXiv 1905.0974920 millionn/a8 hours

384-bit elliptic curve (1)

P-384

DatePaperPhysical qubitsLogical qubitsRun time
Jun 2017Quantum resource estimates for computing elliptic curve discrete logarithmsarXiv 1706.06752n/a3,484n/a

512-bit finite-field discrete log (1)

smaller than the sizes in use

DatePaperPhysical qubitsLogical qubitsRun time
Oct 2026Shor's algorithm compiled on cat qubits: 22 593 qubits for RSA-2048 in 3.14 daysarXiv 2610.378396,656n/a21 minutes

AES-128 (1)

key search with Grover's algorithm

DatePaperPhysical qubitsLogical qubitsRun time
Dec 2015Applying Grover's algorithm to AES: quantum resource estimatesarXiv 1512.04965n/a2,953n/a

SHA-256 (1)

pre-image search with Grover's algorithm

DatePaperPhysical qubitsLogical qubitsRun time
Mar 2016Estimating the cost of generic quantum pre-image attacks on SHA-2 and SHA-3arXiv 1603.09383n/a2,402n/a